Author: jbosc

  • Illogical Chicago

    The most powerful word in the English language is BECAUSE.

    After witnessing the trouncing of facts, logic, and reason in last Tuesday’s primary election, it’s time to take a hard look at what it’s going to take to convince Chicago’s voters that things should be better. While there is no panacea, the bottom line is that messaging matters.

    Ben Shapiro is famous for always saying, “Facts don’t care about your feelings.” Unfortunately, facts are not terribly persuasive.

    Whether greater or lesser known, Scott Adams more accurately told us that, “Feelings don’t care about your facts.” What Scott was trying to tell us is that, feelings are more persuasive than facts.

    If you want to persuade people to vote for you, they need to feel good about it. And it’s time that right-thinking Chicagoans wrap their heads around this fact: in every battle of feelings, democrats win.

    You cannot fight human nature. People come with some pretty big feelings. And when left unchecked, feelings will dominate over facts every time. What Mr. Adams was really saying – and modern psychology has proven – is that humans are not rational creatures. Instead, we are rationalizing animals. That is to say, we observe the world before us and then rationalize what we see to match our feelings.

    Thinking people see this every day in the language of the modern Chicago liberal. Pay attention and you’ll notice sentences (full paragraphs even) loaded with feelings and absent of any facts. Lots of platitudes about “helping” and “enabling” and “building” but not a lot details about the results.

    For the modern liberal, it is the intentions that matter, not the results. However, as grandma used to say, “The road to hell is paved with good intentions.” And that’s exactly where Chicago’s leftists’ best of intentions have gotten us.

    It’s important to understand that Chicago’s politicians are not deliberately attempting to ruin the city. They are simply following their – however misguided – good intentions. This is true even for the most ardent communist among them.

    Brandon Johnson does not wake up in the morning thinking to himself, ‘How can I condemn Chicago’s black kids to a life of poverty?’ He does however let his feelings govern his actions regardless of the consequences. Later, when the results of his actions don’t match his intentions, he has a moment of cognitive dissonance. But then his brain rationalizes the result by blaming Trump, or racism, or both. Crisis averted. Big feelings intact. Intentions justified. He quietly tells himself, ‘I am a good man doing the right thing.’ His brain gives itself a hit of dopamine to solidify the memory. Meanwhile 50% of the kids can’t read and several hundred get shot every year.

    This is the mental process employed by every leftist and communist not only here in Chicago but nationally and globally. Further, because they have deftly trained their brain to overcome this cognitive dissonance it happens automatically, without them even thinking about it. Inconvenient facts pose as much of a challenge to Brandon Johnson as a marble does a garbage truck.

    Liberals, like everyone else, simply want to feel good. That, in and of itself is not necessarily a character flaw. But it becomes an issue when an individual is unable to recognize the consequence of their actions. This ability to rationalize any facts that make them uncomfortable poses, as demonstrated, a serious threat to society.

    BECAUSE is the brain’s connector between action and consequence.

    Like a four-year-old constantly asking why… what comes after the BECAUSE matters. It’s human nature. We have to know.

    The liberal mind understands this innately. They use BECAUSE all the time. But if you listen carefully, you will notice that everything that comes after the BECAUSE is either a platitude or simply incorrect.

    “Whether he was fighting for civil rights, labor rights, or to end forever wars, Reverend Jesse Jackson’s ties to Chicago, and why Chicago has come to love him, is because he understood that everybody is somebody.”

    “Our city is richer and more vibrant because of the talent, diversity, and unique experiences refugee communities bring to our Welcoming City.”

    “The president is targeting cities like Chicago because he can’t defend what he’s done to the economy.”
    — Mayor Brandon Johnson

    If one engages in the argument against “everybody is somebody” they will lose. Every time. Guaranteed. It is an incredible platitude meaning nothing. But ordinary republicans will regularly enter the milieu and argue against such things where, like a dog chasing its tail, facts and logic do not apply.

    We saw this recently in the arguments surrounding illegal migrants. While right-thinking people were talking about the letter of the law everyone on the left was shouting “everybody is somebody”. Liberals trusted their feelings.

    BECAUSE is the brain’s nexus between feeling and logic.

    If you want to convince anyone of anything you need to appeal to their feelings first. The logic comes later. That is, until you have cracked through the feelings barrier “feelings don’t care about your facts.”

    So how do we crack through the feelings barrier?

    You have to use the word BECAUSE.

    Consider a reporter asking the mayor, “Since Sheridan Gorman was murdered BECAUSE of your continued policies will Chicago repeal its sanctuary city ordinance right away or are you going to wait until more of your citizens are murdered?”

    [Psychologically there is more going on in that question than this author can explain in this time and space. There is a presumptive action, presumptive close, and a false choice that if explained completely would turn this into a treatise. Let’s just say it’s a fully loaded question and leave it at that.]

    First the mayor’s brain will reset. You will witness the face of someone experiencing extreme cognitive dissonance. But then, after his brain runs over the marble, he will either deny reality itself “there is no connection” or attack the reporter “you racist.” But either way, it will most likely be quite explosive as big feelings don’t deflate easily. No matter how the mayor responds, he says something foolish.

    Other politicians and members of the media should be questioned similarly. Give no quarter. Take no prisoners.

    And therein lies the main reason why right-thinking people do not question the illogical liberals appropriately. We simply don’t want to deal with the anger and vitriol that comes with confronting idiocy with the consequence of its actions. However the time for passivity is past. Too much is at stake. It’s now or never.

    If you’re not taking flak, you’re not over the target.

    Let’s see if we can find a couple other examples.

    There are rules regarding peaceful protesting BECAUSE when the protest is over we want everyone to get home safely.

    Now who can argue with that? If you don’t want everyone to get home safely then you are not peacefully protesting.

    Resisting arrest is a crime BECAUSE police officers are not judges and we don’t want them to be. Go peacefully. Let the judge figure it out. You will have your say and your day of justice. And if the police acted unreasonably you will get your recompense.

    How about a few more?

    Giving anyone a break feels good. Letting criminals out on bail to be part of society makes leftists feel like they’re doing something to help the poor unfortunate souls. Then, when habitual offenders continue to perpetrate additional random acts of violence, liberals refuse to acknowledge that they’re the cause. They need to be told.

    Someone needs to tell the governor, Bethany MaGee was set on fire on a Chicago el platform BECAUSE of the liberal policies you and people like you support.

    The DMV should not give drivers licenses to illegal aliens BECAUSE it reduces wages for hardworking Americans.

    The DMV should not give drivers licenses to people who are not fluent in English BECAUSE it threatens the safety of everyone on the road.

    Take note that this methodology is not reserved for politicians. Actually, politicians are not really the problem. The real problem is the voters who keep electing these idiots into office. Thankfully this methodology works on everyone.

    For psychological reasons (which we are not getting into here) humans are notoriously herd animals. So if you want to change anyone’s mind you have to break them out of the herd. In order to do this you have to bring back shame. You need to shame their herd. (Remember “a basket of deplorables”?)

    With a little bit of practice you will start thinking in terms of BECAUSE and your arguments will be much more persuasive. It might prove to be too little too late BECAUSE the city is so far gone. But the best we can do is try.

  • Chicago’s Bankruptcy Prophecy Foretold

    It’s been unfixable for over a decade.

    This is not a new problem:

    “We are writing today to let you know that the pension crisis has grown so severe that it is now, unfixable,” said the letter co-signed by Miles White, chairman of the Commercial Club; Jim Farrell, chairman of the Civic Committee, and Ty Fahner, president of the Civic Committee and Commercial Club.

    — Chicago Sun-Times, November 2012

    That was 13 years ago, back when Miles White was the Chairman and CEO of Abbott Labs. Jim Farrell was the retired Chairman and CEO of Illinois Tool Works. Ty Fahner was a partner at Mayer Brown where he handled tax, bankruptcy, and securities matters. These were not dumb guys. To the contrary, they understood finance and were used to dealing with large numbers.

    In a recent Chicago Contrarian article George Shay wrote, “First comes moral bankruptcy. Then comes fiscal bankruptcy.” Chicago has been both for a very long time.

    Unfixable & Unknowable (The Problem Is the Plan)

    Nobody can tell you how bad it really is.

    In his article Shay says the total pension debt exceeds $35 billion. But it could easily be more. A lot more.

    That number has been floated by Mark Glennon over at WirePoints. But bear in mind that analysis was based on the 2024 actuarial numbers from the pension funds themselves. Those numbers have historically been proven inaccurate in that they overstate anticipated returns and underestimate pensioners’ life-spans.

    Further, the $35B absolutely doesn’t include the fallout of this month’s new state law dealing with Chicago’s Tier 2 pension system. That alone will likely add $11-15B (30-40%) to the total.

    As if the situation is not bad enough, that number doesn’t include non-pension debt. The municipal bond debt another number shrouded in mystery. That is in no small part because it’s a perpetually moving target, but also because it depends on what numbers get included. Should the city’s numbers include the park district? How about CPS?

    It’s no wonder that earlier this year Illinois Policy wrote that each Chicago taxpayer is on the hook for over $40,000. And that’s just to the city! If one was to add the debt from the county and the state every taxpayer owes over $80,000.

    Its undeniable, the city is broke.

    Potential Solutions

    There are only five self-help tools available to thwart financial ruin:
    1. Austerity: a rigorous cutting of expenses.
    2. Raising Revenue: lots of new taxes.
    3. Growth: new businesses and people increase the size of the pie.
    4. Inflation: the ability to pay back old debt with cheaper dollars.
    5. Bankruptcy.

    An entire series of articles could be written about each… but to what end? The mayor and the city council have shown no interest in reducing spending. They also know the populace will not stand for new taxes. Chicago’s crime situation not only prevents growth, it contributes to people fleeing the city in record numbers. The mayor couldn’t create inflation if he tried as he’s unable to print money. That leaves old #5 as the only option.

    It is worth noting that there is a non-self-help option: bailout. But as Shay correctly points out, that’s simply politically impossible. Illinois is in no better financial shape than the city. And on the national level, the responsible citizens across the country don’t have the stomach to pay for Chicago’s mistakes.

    Who’s Going to Get Hurt?

    For starters, it won’t be the rich. Money buys options. Just like when the public schools are terrible — those who can send their children to private schools — in a similar manner well-healed Chicagoans have options. One of those options is to simply leave. Even if a federal bankruptcy judge was to institute some sort of “Chicago income tax” those who can could simply walk away.

    How about the truly poor? Well, they’re poor. They have nothing more to give (at least financially.) However, their continued suffering will only be exacerbated by a reduced police force and other services.

    It’s easy to see who’ll be left holding the bag: the middle class, city workers, and maybe bondholders. (If the pension funds are holding municipal bond debt they will simply be obliterated. Payments to current retirees will cease. The housing market will collapse. It will be an extinction event for the city.)

    It’s time to be honest with every police officer, firefighter, school teacher, and every other municipal worker:

    • If you retire BEFORE the inevitable bankruptcy filing
      You may – or may not – be able to keep your full pension. That is, perhaps the bankruptcy judge will deem that because you have already retired you should be allowed to keep what you are receiving. But then again, perhaps the judge will believe that you knew — or should have known — that the inevitable haircut was coming and give you one.
    • If you retire AFTER the inevitable bankruptcy filing.
      You will not be receiving your full pension. PERIOD. FULL STOP.

    Anyone who tells you otherwise is either stupid or lying (or both.)

    The Blame Game

    How we got here is kinda irrelevant. It’s only important to the extent that we don’t continue to repeat the mistakes of the past.

    Yes, Daley bought the peace with the teacher’s union by selling the parking meters and the skyway.

    Emmanuel got his buddies to refinance short term debt into long term debt before he saw the writing on the wall. He then took his chair and went home before the music stopped playing.

    Lightfoot and Johnson are merely useful idiots who have IQs of a nice summer day. To his credit, last week Johnson made national news by finally observing that Chicago’s finances are at a “point of no return” without a massive tax hike. It’s nice that he points it out after cutting a deal with the teacher’s union and borrowing another $800 million.

    At the end of the day, people get the government they deserve; we have no one to blame but ourselves.

    So What Is One to Do?

    1. If you have the ability to do so, even if you have to move heaven and earth to make it happen, get out.

      Oh yes, the kids are in school and the wife has this job and this and that. Get out. And baseball and soccer and dancing. Get out. And parents and friends and relatives. Get. Out.

    That’s it.

    If for some reason you happen to be feeling frisky or adventurous and choose to stay in the city, there may remain one single chance, one opportunity, however small of a possibility there may still be some way to save the city.

    Back in February the Contrarian published a brilliant article by a genius author who wrote:

    Consider a mayoral candidate whose sole position is that the city needs to be placed into “organized bankruptcy.” The idea is that an organized bankruptcy would be better than a disorganized bankruptcy or financial collapse whereby the city is unable to make either pension or bond payments. It’s the only thing the candidate talks about. When asked about crime, the politician answers: “If you think we have crime problem now wait until the city fails to make its payments to the police officers pension fund unless we get the city into organized bankruptcy.” Questioned on the environment? “The CTA can buy an entire new fleet of electric buses but in three years it won’t be able to pay anyone to drive them unless we place the city into organized bankruptcy.” On education: “CPS is probably top-heavy, with too many administrators, so the CTU should probably decide if they would like to take a 10 percent haircut with an organized bankruptcy now or 25 percent cut later with a financial collapse.”

    Let’s be clear; Chicago has passed the event horizon.

    From where we are there is no going back.

    As Vallas, Mendoza and the others begin to elbow their way into your social media timelines, there is only one question you need to ask of them, “Will you commit to placing Chicago into organized bankruptcy within your first year in office?”

    Anything short of an unqualified, “Yes, I fully promise to place the city of Chicago into bankruptcy even if I have to halt bond and or pension payments to make it happen” is an unacceptable answer.

    Here’s the thing about bankruptcy; the sooner you file the less painful it is. Chicago should have filed over a decade ago when the three wise men foretold of its coming. It would have been much less painful then.

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