No Street Money in Chicago; Could Obama Lose Illinois? Cook County?

A lot of anger in the rank and file because Barack Obama is not handing out the typical “street money” to hire thugs to work the precincts and intimidate black voters into showing up at the polls. Obama’s balking at the $2 million that would cost because the campaign can’t afford to spend it.

This could cost him enough votes in Cook County for Romney to win it…and thus the state.

Sound incredible? It is. That’s true. But a lack of street money makes this possible if not probable.

via Kevin DuJan @ Hillbuzz.

This is not exactly a shakedown but it is another common occurrence on the Chicago’s West Side (and I understand the South too.)  I’ve seen it first hand in a local race… it’s bizarre.

Kevin DuJan has excellent sources.  If he says this appears to be a problem then it’s going to be a problem.

How Mitt Wins

Yesterday I read something over at Hillbuzz that got me thinking:

Today I want to think about just who are the people who will be voting for Obama in November and see how that compares to the people who voted for him in 2008. I don’t believe anyone who DIDN’T vote for him last time liked anything about him and will be voting for him THIS time. I also don’t believe the people who sat the last election out because of John McCain will be staying home again.

via Hillbuzz.

So I spent a few minutes and created the table below.  It only has states that Obama won in 2008.  I left out states where Obama took >60% (except for Illinois b/c I was just curious.)  It’s sorted by the percentage of voters in that state necessary to jump from Obama to Romney in order to flip the state.

  Raw Votes Percentage    
State Obama McCain Obama McCain FlipVotes FlipPercent
North Carolina 2,142,651 2,128,474 49.70% 49.38% 7,089 0.16%
Indiana 1,374,039 1,345,648 49.85% 48.82% 14,196 0.51%
Florida 4,282,367 4,046,219 50.91% 48.40% 118,074 1.26%
Ohio 2,940,044 2,677,820 51.38% 46.80% 131,112 2.29%
Virginia 1,959,532 1,725,005 52.63% 46.33% 117,264 3.15%
Colorado 1,288,633 1,073,629 53.66% 44.71% 107,502 4.48%
Iowa 828,940 682,379 53.93% 44.39% 73,281 4.77%
New Hampshire 384,826 316,534 54.13% 44.52% 34,146 4.81%
Minnesota 1,573,354 1,275,409 54.06% 43.82% 148,973 5.12%
Pennsylvania 3,276,363 2,655,885 54.47% 44.15% 310,239 5.16%
Nevada 533,736 412,827 55.15% 42.65% 60,455 6.25%
Wisconsin 1,677,211 1,252,393 56.22% 42.31% 212,409 6.96%
New Mexico 472,422 346,832 56.91% 41.78% 62,795 7.57%
New Jersey 2,215,422 1,613,207 57.14% 41.61% 301,108 7.77%
Oregon 1,037,291 738,475 56.75% 40.40% 149,408 8.18%
Michigan 2,872,579 2,048,639 57.33% 40.89% 411,970 8.22%
Washington 1,750,848 1,229,216 57.34% 40.26% 260,816 8.54%
Illinois 3,419,348 2,031,179 61.85% 36.74% 694,085 12.56%

This means if 7,089 people in North Carolina who voted for Obama last time vote for Romney this time then Romney will win NC. Regardless of whatever the polling says.

If Kevin DuJan at Hillbuzz is correct, it’s pretty safe to say that North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia should all go Romney.  In these state Romney needs <2% of voters to flip.  That should not be a problem.

Should that happen, Romney will have 265 or 266 electoral votes depending on how Nebraska splits.  You can see the map here.

That means that Romney must also win, Colorado or Iowa or Wisconsin or Michigan, or Romney must win at least 2 votes from Nebraska AND New Hampshire.

That my friends is how Romney wins.