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  • Illogical Chicago

    The most powerful word in the English language is BECAUSE.

    After witnessing the trouncing of facts, logic, and reason in last Tuesday’s primary election, it’s time to take a hard look at what it’s going to take to convince Chicago’s voters that things should be better. While there is no panacea, the bottom line is that messaging matters.

    Ben Shapiro is famous for always saying, “Facts don’t care about your feelings.” Unfortunately, facts are not terribly persuasive.

    Whether greater or lesser known, Scott Adams more accurately told us that, “Feelings don’t care about your facts.” What Scott was trying to tell us is that, feelings are more persuasive than facts.

    If you want to persuade people to vote for you, they need to feel good about it. And it’s time that right-thinking Chicagoans wrap their heads around this fact: in every battle of feelings, democrats win.

    You cannot fight human nature. People come with some pretty big feelings. And when left unchecked, feelings will dominate over facts every time. What Mr. Adams was really saying – and modern psychology has proven – is that humans are not rational creatures. Instead, we are rationalizing animals. That is to say, we observe the world before us and then rationalize what we see to match our feelings.

    Thinking people see this every day in the language of the modern Chicago liberal. Pay attention and you’ll notice sentences (full paragraphs even) loaded with feelings and absent of any facts. Lots of platitudes about “helping” and “enabling” and “building” but not a lot details about the results.

    For the modern liberal, it is the intentions that matter, not the results. However, as grandma used to say, “The road to hell is paved with good intentions.” And that’s exactly where Chicago’s leftists’ best of intentions have gotten us.

    It’s important to understand that Chicago’s politicians are not deliberately attempting to ruin the city. They are simply following their – however misguided – good intentions. This is true even for the most ardent communist among them.

    Brandon Johnson does not wake up in the morning thinking to himself, ‘How can I condemn Chicago’s black kids to a life of poverty?’ He does however let his feelings govern his actions regardless of the consequences. Later, when the results of his actions don’t match his intentions, he has a moment of cognitive dissonance. But then his brain rationalizes the result by blaming Trump, or racism, or both. Crisis averted. Big feelings intact. Intentions justified. He quietly tells himself, ‘I am a good man doing the right thing.’ His brain gives itself a hit of dopamine to solidify the memory. Meanwhile 50% of the kids can’t read and several hundred get shot every year.

    This is the mental process employed by every leftist and communist not only here in Chicago but nationally and globally. Further, because they have deftly trained their brain to overcome this cognitive dissonance it happens automatically, without them even thinking about it. Inconvenient facts pose as much of a challenge to Brandon Johnson as a marble does a garbage truck.

    Liberals, like everyone else, simply want to feel good. That, in and of itself is not necessarily a character flaw. But it becomes an issue when an individual is unable to recognize the consequence of their actions. This ability to rationalize any facts that make them uncomfortable poses, as demonstrated, a serious threat to society.

    BECAUSE is the brain’s connector between action and consequence.

    Like a four-year-old constantly asking why… what comes after the BECAUSE matters. It’s human nature. We have to know.

    The liberal mind understands this innately. They use BECAUSE all the time. But if you listen carefully, you will notice that everything that comes after the BECAUSE is either a platitude or simply incorrect.

    “Whether he was fighting for civil rights, labor rights, or to end forever wars, Reverend Jesse Jackson’s ties to Chicago, and why Chicago has come to love him, is because he understood that everybody is somebody.”

    “Our city is richer and more vibrant because of the talent, diversity, and unique experiences refugee communities bring to our Welcoming City.”

    “The president is targeting cities like Chicago because he can’t defend what he’s done to the economy.”
    — Mayor Brandon Johnson

    If one engages in the argument against “everybody is somebody” they will lose. Every time. Guaranteed. It is an incredible platitude meaning nothing. But ordinary republicans will regularly enter the milieu and argue against such things where, like a dog chasing its tail, facts and logic do not apply.

    We saw this recently in the arguments surrounding illegal migrants. While right-thinking people were talking about the letter of the law everyone on the left was shouting “everybody is somebody”. Liberals trusted their feelings.

    BECAUSE is the brain’s nexus between feeling and logic.

    If you want to convince anyone of anything you need to appeal to their feelings first. The logic comes later. That is, until you have cracked through the feelings barrier “feelings don’t care about your facts.”

    So how do we crack through the feelings barrier?

    You have to use the word BECAUSE.

    Consider a reporter asking the mayor, “Since Sheridan Gorman was murdered BECAUSE of your continued policies will Chicago repeal its sanctuary city ordinance right away or are you going to wait until more of your citizens are murdered?”

    [Psychologically there is more going on in that question than this author can explain in this time and space. There is a presumptive action, presumptive close, and a false choice that if explained completely would turn this into a treatise. Let’s just say it’s a fully loaded question and leave it at that.]

    First the mayor’s brain will reset. You will witness the face of someone experiencing extreme cognitive dissonance. But then, after his brain runs over the marble, he will either deny reality itself “there is no connection” or attack the reporter “you racist.” But either way, it will most likely be quite explosive as big feelings don’t deflate easily. No matter how the mayor responds, he says something foolish.

    Other politicians and members of the media should be questioned similarly. Give no quarter. Take no prisoners.

    And therein lies the main reason why right-thinking people do not question the illogical liberals appropriately. We simply don’t want to deal with the anger and vitriol that comes with confronting idiocy with the consequence of its actions. However the time for passivity is past. Too much is at stake. It’s now or never.

    If you’re not taking flak, you’re not over the target.

    Let’s see if we can find a couple other examples.

    There are rules regarding peaceful protesting BECAUSE when the protest is over we want everyone to get home safely.

    Now who can argue with that? If you don’t want everyone to get home safely then you are not peacefully protesting.

    Resisting arrest is a crime BECAUSE police officers are not judges and we don’t want them to be. Go peacefully. Let the judge figure it out. You will have your say and your day of justice. And if the police acted unreasonably you will get your recompense.

    How about a few more?

    Giving anyone a break feels good. Letting criminals out on bail to be part of society makes leftists feel like they’re doing something to help the poor unfortunate souls. Then, when habitual offenders continue to perpetrate additional random acts of violence, liberals refuse to acknowledge that they’re the cause. They need to be told.

    Someone needs to tell the governor, Bethany MaGee was set on fire on a Chicago el platform BECAUSE of the liberal policies you and people like you support.

    The DMV should not give drivers licenses to illegal aliens BECAUSE it reduces wages for hardworking Americans.

    The DMV should not give drivers licenses to people who are not fluent in English BECAUSE it threatens the safety of everyone on the road.

    Take note that this methodology is not reserved for politicians. Actually, politicians are not really the problem. The real problem is the voters who keep electing these idiots into office. Thankfully this methodology works on everyone.

    For psychological reasons (which we are not getting into here) humans are notoriously herd animals. So if you want to change anyone’s mind you have to break them out of the herd. In order to do this you have to bring back shame. You need to shame their herd. (Remember “a basket of deplorables”?)

    With a little bit of practice you will start thinking in terms of BECAUSE and your arguments will be much more persuasive. It might prove to be too little too late BECAUSE the city is so far gone. But the best we can do is try.

  • Chicago’s Bankruptcy Prophecy Foretold

    It’s been unfixable for over a decade.

    This is not a new problem:

    “We are writing today to let you know that the pension crisis has grown so severe that it is now, unfixable,” said the letter co-signed by Miles White, chairman of the Commercial Club; Jim Farrell, chairman of the Civic Committee, and Ty Fahner, president of the Civic Committee and Commercial Club.

    — Chicago Sun-Times, November 2012

    That was 13 years ago, back when Miles White was the Chairman and CEO of Abbott Labs. Jim Farrell was the retired Chairman and CEO of Illinois Tool Works. Ty Fahner was a partner at Mayer Brown where he handled tax, bankruptcy, and securities matters. These were not dumb guys. To the contrary, they understood finance and were used to dealing with large numbers.

    In a recent Chicago Contrarian article George Shay wrote, “First comes moral bankruptcy. Then comes fiscal bankruptcy.” Chicago has been both for a very long time.

    Unfixable & Unknowable (The Problem Is the Plan)

    Nobody can tell you how bad it really is.

    In his article Shay says the total pension debt exceeds $35 billion. But it could easily be more. A lot more.

    That number has been floated by Mark Glennon over at WirePoints. But bear in mind that analysis was based on the 2024 actuarial numbers from the pension funds themselves. Those numbers have historically been proven inaccurate in that they overstate anticipated returns and underestimate pensioners’ life-spans.

    Further, the $35B absolutely doesn’t include the fallout of this month’s new state law dealing with Chicago’s Tier 2 pension system. That alone will likely add $11-15B (30-40%) to the total.

    As if the situation is not bad enough, that number doesn’t include non-pension debt. The municipal bond debt another number shrouded in mystery. That is in no small part because it’s a perpetually moving target, but also because it depends on what numbers get included. Should the city’s numbers include the park district? How about CPS?

    It’s no wonder that earlier this year Illinois Policy wrote that each Chicago taxpayer is on the hook for over $40,000. And that’s just to the city! If one was to add the debt from the county and the state every taxpayer owes over $80,000.

    Its undeniable, the city is broke.

    Potential Solutions

    There are only five self-help tools available to thwart financial ruin:
    1. Austerity: a rigorous cutting of expenses.
    2. Raising Revenue: lots of new taxes.
    3. Growth: new businesses and people increase the size of the pie.
    4. Inflation: the ability to pay back old debt with cheaper dollars.
    5. Bankruptcy.

    An entire series of articles could be written about each… but to what end? The mayor and the city council have shown no interest in reducing spending. They also know the populace will not stand for new taxes. Chicago’s crime situation not only prevents growth, it contributes to people fleeing the city in record numbers. The mayor couldn’t create inflation if he tried as he’s unable to print money. That leaves old #5 as the only option.

    It is worth noting that there is a non-self-help option: bailout. But as Shay correctly points out, that’s simply politically impossible. Illinois is in no better financial shape than the city. And on the national level, the responsible citizens across the country don’t have the stomach to pay for Chicago’s mistakes.

    Who’s Going to Get Hurt?

    For starters, it won’t be the rich. Money buys options. Just like when the public schools are terrible — those who can send their children to private schools — in a similar manner well-healed Chicagoans have options. One of those options is to simply leave. Even if a federal bankruptcy judge was to institute some sort of “Chicago income tax” those who can could simply walk away.

    How about the truly poor? Well, they’re poor. They have nothing more to give (at least financially.) However, their continued suffering will only be exacerbated by a reduced police force and other services.

    It’s easy to see who’ll be left holding the bag: the middle class, city workers, and maybe bondholders. (If the pension funds are holding municipal bond debt they will simply be obliterated. Payments to current retirees will cease. The housing market will collapse. It will be an extinction event for the city.)

    It’s time to be honest with every police officer, firefighter, school teacher, and every other municipal worker:

    • If you retire BEFORE the inevitable bankruptcy filing
      You may – or may not – be able to keep your full pension. That is, perhaps the bankruptcy judge will deem that because you have already retired you should be allowed to keep what you are receiving. But then again, perhaps the judge will believe that you knew — or should have known — that the inevitable haircut was coming and give you one.
    • If you retire AFTER the inevitable bankruptcy filing.
      You will not be receiving your full pension. PERIOD. FULL STOP.

    Anyone who tells you otherwise is either stupid or lying (or both.)

    The Blame Game

    How we got here is kinda irrelevant. It’s only important to the extent that we don’t continue to repeat the mistakes of the past.

    Yes, Daley bought the peace with the teacher’s union by selling the parking meters and the skyway.

    Emmanuel got his buddies to refinance short term debt into long term debt before he saw the writing on the wall. He then took his chair and went home before the music stopped playing.

    Lightfoot and Johnson are merely useful idiots who have IQs of a nice summer day. To his credit, last week Johnson made national news by finally observing that Chicago’s finances are at a “point of no return” without a massive tax hike. It’s nice that he points it out after cutting a deal with the teacher’s union and borrowing another $800 million.

    At the end of the day, people get the government they deserve; we have no one to blame but ourselves.

    So What Is One to Do?

    1. If you have the ability to do so, even if you have to move heaven and earth to make it happen, get out.

      Oh yes, the kids are in school and the wife has this job and this and that. Get out. And baseball and soccer and dancing. Get out. And parents and friends and relatives. Get. Out.

    That’s it.

    If for some reason you happen to be feeling frisky or adventurous and choose to stay in the city, there may remain one single chance, one opportunity, however small of a possibility there may still be some way to save the city.

    Back in February the Contrarian published a brilliant article by a genius author who wrote:

    Consider a mayoral candidate whose sole position is that the city needs to be placed into “organized bankruptcy.” The idea is that an organized bankruptcy would be better than a disorganized bankruptcy or financial collapse whereby the city is unable to make either pension or bond payments. It’s the only thing the candidate talks about. When asked about crime, the politician answers: “If you think we have crime problem now wait until the city fails to make its payments to the police officers pension fund unless we get the city into organized bankruptcy.” Questioned on the environment? “The CTA can buy an entire new fleet of electric buses but in three years it won’t be able to pay anyone to drive them unless we place the city into organized bankruptcy.” On education: “CPS is probably top-heavy, with too many administrators, so the CTU should probably decide if they would like to take a 10 percent haircut with an organized bankruptcy now or 25 percent cut later with a financial collapse.”

    Let’s be clear; Chicago has passed the event horizon.

    From where we are there is no going back.

    As Vallas, Mendoza and the others begin to elbow their way into your social media timelines, there is only one question you need to ask of them, “Will you commit to placing Chicago into organized bankruptcy within your first year in office?”

    Anything short of an unqualified, “Yes, I fully promise to place the city of Chicago into bankruptcy even if I have to halt bond and or pension payments to make it happen” is an unacceptable answer.

    Here’s the thing about bankruptcy; the sooner you file the less painful it is. Chicago should have filed over a decade ago when the three wise men foretold of its coming. It would have been much less painful then.

    .

  • Can Chicago’s Media Expose Mayor Brandon Johnson?

    Are There Any Smart People at the Intersection of Mayor Brandon Johnson and the Media?

    In days of old it was the media’s job.

    Twenty-five years ago every mayoral candidate had to sit down for a full hour every Sunday morning and be prepared for an in-depth discussion on various matters. Back in the day WTTW – which is now the only outlet conducting long-form interviews – was undoubtedly the easiest interview of the bunch. The guy on NBC liked to talk real fast and was a little bit tougher. Over on CBS Bill Kurtis took his job seriously and is probably the gold standard by which all Chicago journalists should be judged.

    However, as they say, things have changed; and not for the better.

    Today, in their desire to simply have access to the mayor, Chicago’s media outlets are engaged in an embarrassing circle-jerk of never-ending stupidity whereby each tries to demonstrate their own ignorance to the other. The truly sad part of it is that each side is unaware of what it’s doing.

    Instead of an hour dedicated to policy, we get Mayor Johnson waxing nonsensically from behind a podium for 10 minutes yammering on about his feelings.

    It’s actually hard to believe this didn’t happen during the campaign. Someone, anyone, early on in the process should have made a very nice video while being polite, but simply stating the facts, that Brandon Johnson is an intellectual lightweight who always sounds like someone half drunk at midnight trying to talk their way out of a ticket.

    It shouldn’t be difficult. Simply speak the truth. One doesn’t have to be mean about it. There is nothing wrong with telling Brandon Johnson that he appears to be a nice man who loves his wife and his kids, goes to church, and generally means well and what have you. It’s also fair to say that he’s probably a decent man and a productive member of society, Unfortunately, we’re talking about being the mayor of the third largest city in America. The qualifications are more than being a productive member of society and a good person.

    We’re not looking for a genius. What Chicago really needs is a leader. A leader is someone who can very simply explain, “This is what I’m going to do. This is why it is going to work. And this is how we will measure success.”

    Unfortunately Mayor Johnson is simply unable to consistently articulate his own policy, its rationale, or its measure of success.

    To be clear, this is not a criticism of his race. There are several other more qualified candidates for mayor who also happened to be black. Toni Preckwinkle is a proven executive running the Cook County Board. Longtime alderman and former felon Walter Burnett has proven himself quite adapt at wielding the levers of power in City Hall. Doctor Willie Wilson, who did run for mayor, runs a successful multi-million dollar company.

    This is not to say that any of people would make a suitable mayor, only that each is infinitely more qualified than Brandon Johnson.

    In days of old local media would be having a field day. No talking head would ever appear on camera without saying things like, “Mayor Johnson was unable to describe his policy today…” Or, “Today, Mayor Johnson refused to discuss why so many of Chicago’s children can’t read or do math at grade level.”

    It’s easy to believe local media is simply full of sycophants. And while that is certainly part of it, it’s also worth noting that today most journalists are dumber than politicians. They just don’t know what questions to ask.

    Journalism can be confrontational without being adversarial. Perhaps it’s time for the Chicago Tribune editorial board to invite the good mayor in for a sit-down. They can call it the “State of the City” or something like that as we approach the halfway point of the mayor’s term.

    Although no one sees that happening, here are some questions a young enterprising journalist should ask the mayor if they could ever get him to sit down. They could actually even give the mayor the questions in advance so he could study like a test. All the questions follow the same, policy > nexus > metric, format:

    The Scope and Role of Government

    • With the recent election of Trump, how do you see the different roles of municipal, county, state, and federal governments?
    • What policy of your administration do you believe best represents Chicago fulfilling its role as a municipality?
    • How will this policy make life better for Chicago’s residents?
    • How will your administration measure the success or failure of this policy?

    Finance & Macroeconomics

    • Policies:
      • Can the city go on raising taxes forever or at some point will have to balance the budget, pay down debt, and get current with its pension obligations?
      • Would you ever consider putting the city into bankruptcy?
      • Do you believe the city has an obligation to fully fund the pensions of the police officers, firefighters, teachers, and other city workers?
      • For the last decade or so the city has been hemorrhaging people, how long can they continue before it becomes a problem?
      • Do you believe the city may reach a point where it would have to raise taxes so prohibitively that people may leave and cause what some call a “death spiral”?
    • Describe how your policies will make living more cost-effective in Chicago.
    • How will your administration measure the success or failure of these policies?

    Race Relations

    • We’ve noticed that you often talk about what you wish to do for black people, is there anything the city should be doing for non-black people?
    • What policy of your administration best deals with the above question?
    • How will your administration measure the success or failure of this policy?

    Education

    • Policies:
      • If CPS was a business, what is the product?
      • How does the product of CPS compare to other school districts in large cities?
      • What’s the high school graduation rate for CPS? | What should be done with students who don’t graduate?
      • What’s the metric by which CPS teachers should be measured?
      • Are there any bad teachers in CPS? | What should we do with them?
      • CPS is now spending over $20,000 per student per year, is that an acceptable number?
      • Why is it that CPS’s spending has not gone down with declining enrollment?
    • Describe how these policies will make education better for the average child in Chicago.
    • How will your administration measure the success or failure of these policies?

    Public Safety

    • Policies:
      • Should CPD simply follow the law and arrest or ticket every individual who was observed committing a crime regardless of the situation or that persons race, gender, or stature?
      • If either CPD or the Cook County State’s Attorney wish to apply discretion in any matter how should that be judged? | What are the factors used when applying law enforcement or prosecutorial discretion?
      • Now that we have seen some of the effects of cashless bail, is it working or not working?
      • What would you say is the reasonable amount of crime that law-abiding citizens should have to tolerate in the city?
      • What data do you get in reports from CPD and OEMC by which you measure CPD’s performance? | Are you happy with the reports you get? | How has the data changed since you have been in office?
      • What should citizens expect as a reasonable response time from CPD when they call 911?
      • In the federal system, felons in possession of a firearm receive a mandatory 5-year sentence. Have you ever spoken with anyone in the CCSAO about making these referrals to the US attorney? | Would you support the CCSAO making these referrals?
      • Is CPD a little top-heavy? | Is there some reason each district requires more than a single commander, 3-4 captains, 6-8 lieutenants, 14-16 sergeants? | If the superintendent cannot directly manage 50 people he wouldn’t be qualified to manage a McDonald’s. What’s going on over there?
    • Describe how these policies will make life safer for the average citizen in Chicago.
    • How will your administration measure the success or failure of these policies?

    Housing & Real Estate

    • Policies:
      • Does Chicago have enough housing?
      • Does Chicago need more high-end, market rate, or more affordable rate housing? | Why?
      • Is there any neighborhood where you would or would not allow only market rate housing to be built? | Similarly, is there any neighborhood where you would or would not allow only affordable housing to be built?
      • Does your office have a report on how much additional tax revenue would be generated if any given amount of new housing was completed? | No. Why not? | Yes. What does it say?
      • Why does Chicago have so much vacant commercial real estate? | What, if anything, should be done about it? | Would you support the city and/or county having a tax holiday for some business that wants to open up in vacant commercial real estate? | By what criteria would the businesses be selected?
    • Describe how these policies will make housing more comfortable for the average citizen in Chicago.
    • How will your administration measure the success or failure of these policies?

    Migration & Social Services

    • Policies:
      • How many migrants, illegal immigrants, are currently residing in Chicago?
      • How many migrants can Chicago accept in any given year? | How was that number determined? | Is any number too many; can Chicago accept 1,000,000 per year?
      • In your term, or perhaps in just the last fiscal year, what has been the cost of illegal immigration to Chicago?
      • Does that number include the added expense of migrant children enrolled in CPS?
      • How many children of illegal migrant’s are currently enrolled in CPS?
      • Does your office have a report describing spending on migrants? | Does this report break it down to dollars per migrant?
    • Describe how these policies will make life better for the average citizen in Chicago.
    • How will your administration measure the success or failure of these policies?

    Other Stuff

    • Policies:
      • How much money is currently sitting in the TIFF funds? | How is it invested? | What should be done with it?
      • Do you support the creation of additional TIFF districts in the city?
      • Does the mayor’s office have enough power – or not enough power – relative to the City Council? | Is there anything within your power which you believe should require Council approval? | Is there anything that requires Council approval that you believe you should be able to do?
      • Now that Trump has won, what – if anything – is your office doing to prevent a repeat of the violence of 2016 & particularly 2020? | If violence does erupt, what is your intention in regards to dealing with it? | Will it be permitted?
      • By what standards/metrics should the citizens measure your performance as mayor?
    • Describe how these policies will make life better for the average citizen in Chicago.
    • How will your administration measure the success or failure of these policies?

    These questions are not mean, inappropriate or gotcha. These are ordinary questions that every journalist working the city desk should have the answers to at their fingertips but they, and we, don’t. As a result, we don’t know what were voting for, how much it’s going to cost, or how it impacts our families.

    In Chicago, we are governed by idiots in no small part because the people working in journalism today either don’t want or are too dumb to get answers to the real questions affecting our lives.

  • Reviewing the Impact of Mail-in Voting on Chicago

    What’s really going on with mail-in voting in Chicago?

    According to the Chicago Board of Elections’ database, as of early August there were 2,115,542 registered voters in Chicago. Of those, 1,570,753 were in active status.

    Two addresses share the title of having the greatest number of active voters. The first is 2700 S. California; that’s right, Cook County Jail. The second is in the 3700 block of South Indiana. Each has 1,019 registered active voters.

    All told, there are 18 properties in Chicago with 100 or more active voters. 74 properties have 50 or more active voters and 757 addresses have 10 or more individuals “living” there representing 19,823 active voters.

    How can this be?

    Under Illinois law, 10 ILCS 5/3-2(b)

    A homeless individual must have a mailing address in order to be eligible to register to vote. For purposes of this Act, a mailing address shall constitute a homeless individual's residence for voting purposes. A mailing address of a homeless individual may include, but is not limited to, a shelter, a day shelter, or a private residence.

    Scrolling through the list of addresses generally confirms the obvious. The vast majority of these addresses with hundreds of active registered voters are in fact shelters. Others are veterans’ homes or long-term care facilities. That address on South Indiana Avenue belongs to Matthew’s House, a homeless shelter and food pantry. Here’s a list of the top 10 addresses:

    • 2700 S. California – Cook County Jail – 1019 voters
    • 3700 S. Indiana – Matthews House – 1019 voters
    • 400 N. St. Louis – Breakthrough Men’s Center – 852 voters
    • 2700 W. Harrison – Franciscan Outreach – 481 voters
    • 3300 W. Carroll – Breakthrough Women’s Center – 437 voters
    • 2900 W. Lake – Above & Beyond – 299 voters
    • 1700 N. Ashland – Midnight Ministries – >210 voters (multiple unit numbers)
    • 500 W. 14th – Pacific Garden Mission – >200 voters (at multiple addresses)
    • 800 N. Christina – Salvation Army – 174 voters
    • 300 N. Central – Central Plaza – 155 voters

    The list goes on and on. Whether or not this is a good idea is a different topic; this is not an argument for or against registering voters at shelters. It’s undeniable that Chicago has a homeless problem. Allowing the homeless to use a shelter as a registered address is the probably the right thing to do. However, since the proliferation of mail-in voting it does make one wonder who is actually filling out the ballots.

    But there are other problems as well. The law calls for the Chicago Board of Elections to use United States Postal Service returned mail as the primary source for list hygiene. That is, the only way that the CBOE will move a voter to inactive status is if the USPS returns the election card as “undeliverable” or if another government agency specifically notifies the CBOE of a voters change of address.

    Just so it is abundantly clear, nothing in this article should be taken as an accusation of fraud. It’s not. It’s also not meant to suggest that the outcome of any prior election would have been different if this or that took place. This is not about election hypotheticals. This is about facts surrounding who is registered and eligible to vote in Chicago.

    Even without making any accusations of fraud, it’s certainly appropriate to ask questions about the voting procedure taking place at these shelters. What happens to all the registration cards sent by CBOE? It’s reasonable to assume the post office does not know who is or is not using any particular shelter as an address. A fair conclusion is that USPS does not return any of the election cards as undeliverable. The most likely scenario is the USPS delivers all the mail to the shelter regardless of whose name it is addressed to.

    The next question is what does the shelter do with the election cards it receives? Does the shelter sort through 500, 800, or 1000 cards and determine when was the last time they saw each of these individuals? Does Matthew’s House have a wall with 1000 little pigeonholes where they put everyone’s mail? That’s unlikely. Does the shelter return any of the cards to the CBOE as undeliverable? Not bloody likely. What most likely happens is that the shelter accepts the cards on behalf of the homeless and returns none of them as undeliverable.

    The unfortunate reality is that once an individual is registered to vote at a shelter, there is no method for moving that voter to inactive status. That, in and of itself, is a problem. Add to it mail-in voting and we’ve created a situation simply asking for abuse.

    But the situation at the shelters is not the only issue. In fact, it’s only the beginning.

    Because the CBOE is relying on the USPS to return mail as undeliverable, wherever and whenever that doesn’t happen the number of voters at any address slowly creeps up. Looking at a list of commercial/condo buildings, here is a short sample of interesting addresses:

    • One E. Erie – FedEx Office – 33 voters
    • 69 W. Washington – County Building – 29 voters
    • 4750 N. Sheridan – Institute of Cultural Affairs – 21 voters
    • 1120 N. Lake Shore Drive – Condo – 8 voters
    • 4554 N. Broadway – Commercial Space – 8 voters
    • 8052 S. Loomis – Apartment – 8 voters
    • 1040 N. Lake Shore Drive – 2 Bed Condo – 7 voters
    • 1300 N. State – 2 Bed Condo – 7 voters

    Note: Apartment/unit numbers are deliberately excluded. Similarly, for individual residences only the block number is provided. This is not an exercise to dox, harass, or shame anyone. This is merely shining sunlight on an issue which affects everybody.

    Then, there are the condo/apartment buildings where no unit number is given. It appears safe to assume the USPS is not returning mail as undeliverable from any of these addresses either.

    • 1165 N. Milwaukee – 33 voters
    • 5030 N. Marine – 21 voters
    • 5495 S. Hyde Park – 20 voters
    • 10858 S. Michigan – 19 voters
    • 155 N. Harbor – 19 voters

    There are hundreds of such buildings representing thousands of registered voters.

    As if that was not enough, there are single-family homes with more active registered voters than reasonable voting eligible residents.

    • 1500 block N. Menard – 12 voters
    • 2700 block W. Greenleaf – 12 voters
    • 2800 block W. Walnut – 12 voters
    • 3600 block W. Douglas – 12 voters
    • 6900 block N. Oleander – 10 voters

    Is it possible that 12 voting-age adults can be living in the same three-bedroom house? Of course. But it’s not reasonable to believe it’s a regular, frequent occurrence which should be dismissed out of hand as normal.

    It’s not normal. None of this – from the shelters to people living in commercial spaces – is normal. And in the past it was probably tolerable if not outright acceptable. Because everyone had to go vote in person, a little sloppiness in the voter rolls was not a big deal. However, as mail-in voting becomes more common, we see the need for some changes in election policy.

    Lest there be any doubt, let’s take a look at the impact of mail-in voting.

    Below is a chart showing the total number of votes cast in Chicago in the last six November general elections stacked by voting method.

    For starters, it’s obvious more people vote in the presidential elections than in the mid-terms. That’s a well established trend that has existed nationally throughout history.

    One, perhaps unusual, observation is that while the total vote in 2012 was just over 725,000 votes, that number swelled to nearly 958,000 in 2016. The number of in-person voters was about the same, rising slightly from 526,000 in 2012 to 562,000 2016. The biggest driver in the count was early voting which nearly doubled from 176,002 to 284,000. Nevertheless, there was a 4x increase in the number of mail-in votes from just over 15,000 to nearly 66,000.

    However it was accomplished, it was an increase of 223,000 votes. Does Chicago really love Hillary Clinton that much more than Barack Obama?

    In 2020, the next presidential election, the country was reeling with Covid. Only 300,000 folks voted in-person. Nearly 390,000 – stood six-feet apart, braved the disease and – went to early voting. An absolutely astronomical 455,442 votes were cast via mail-in voting.

    Another way of looking at the voting trend is to group the numbers by ballot type.

    The trends in early and mail-in voting are undeniable.

    Also undeniable is that there was something extremely unusual with mail-in voting in 2020.

    Again, nothing in this article should be taken as an accusation of fraud. It’s not. It’s also not meant to suggest that the outcome of any prior election would have been different if this or that took place. These are simply factual observations based on Chicago’s voting history.

    Nevertheless, in 2020, Chicagoans cast 1.17M votes. 455,000 of those were mail-in ballots.

    Looking at all of the 2020 voters, regardless of their voting method, 411,000 of them did NOT vote in 2016. Over 555,000 of them did NOT vote, by any method, in 2022.

    In fact, there were over 180,000 voters in 2020 who did NOT cast a ballot in the 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, or 2022 elections.

    It’s astounding and undeniable as to what an unusual (and statistically impossible) election took place in 2020. Over 10 percent of the people who voted in 2020 had not done so in the prior four federal elections and then failed to vote again in 2022. The only possible conclusion to be drawn is that when a mail-in ballot is sent to every registered voter, people – but we don’t know exactly who – send them in.

    Just so it’s abundantly clear, Trump lost Chicago by nearly 1M votes. But multiple things can be true at the same time. It’s possible that there was no situation whereby Trump could win Chicago (or Illinois) while simultaneously there were significant voting irregularities regarding the use of mail-in ballots. Those concepts are not mutually exclusive.

    Putting the freakishness of the 2020 election aside, in 2012, mail-in voting represented only 2.13 percent of votes cast. In 2022, nearly a quarter (23.98%) of all ballots counted were mailed-in. It appears that we are going to have mail-in voting for the foreseeable future and its relevance will only continue to grow.

    Which brings us to the Permanent Roster. The Permanent Roster is a new law in Illinois whereby registered voters will receive a mail-in ballot for each election without having to apply for an absentee ballot. What this means is that in Chicago, the CBOE will automatically mail a ballot, for every election, to everyone on the Permanent Roster whether that address is at a shelter, a commercial space, or even to 12 voting age adults living in a three bedroom house, ad infinitum, until the USPS returns mail as undeliverable.

    The Permanent Roster law is putting out a fire with kerosene.

    This situation is not going to resolve itself. It’s gonna require some changes. Thankfully, those changes are actually not difficult to execute. They will however need some political capital to be accomplished. Here’s a few ideas that could be completed quickly without any changes in the current law:

    • The CBOE should take it upon itself to make sure that every voter is registered at a legitimate “residential” address. Every address should be CASS certified and verified through the Cook County Assessor’s list of known PINs. Anyone registered to vote from a commercial address needs to correct their registration or be placed in inactive status.
    • The voter rolls must be searched for duplicates based on similar names and birth dates.
    • Addresses with a high number of voters – particularly single-family homes or individual apartments/condos – should be reviewed and people not legitimately residing at such address would need to correct their registration or be placed in inactive status.
    • The CBOE should work with the Cook County Clerk to make sure every city resident who has died is marked as non-eligible to vote.

    Beyond that, more fundamental adjustments will require something from Springfield. For example, DMV “Real ID” records should be used to confirm identification, addresses, and citizenship status.

    The first step to solving anything is recognizing that there is a problem. In this case, the problem is not about voter fraud or the denial of election outcomes. The problem is a set of laws that were created decades ago which don’t meet the needs of our modern society.

    We can have a system of voting which is clunky, confusing, opaque, and ripe for abuse which only leads people to doubt the results which in turn causes the breakdown of society. Or instead, we can have a voting process which is inclusive, transparent, and secure so that everyone has confidence in every ballots’ authenticity, accuracy, and chain of custody.

    The time to fix this is now.

  • Corrupt Civil Rights Leaders Won’t Support School Choice

    So says Juan Williams:

    “The civil rights challenge of this generation is education,” Williams said. “Dr. King would never allow anybody to buy his silence, to buy him off.”

    He charged that unions are paying off civil rights leaders like Reverend Al Sharpton so that they will not support charter schools and education vouchers. “Poor people need better schools and you can’t make excuses at the cost of our children and our children’s future.”

    via Fox News Insider. (with video.)

    The editor didn’t even choose the best quotes.

    “They don’t ever want those civil rights leaders to stand up and say ‘Yes.’ to charter schools. ‘Yes.’ to vouchers.”  …  “We need  — the black community — better schools.”

    This is a big story.  But the MSM will not touch it.  Sadly.

    Poor children being denied a good education is a tragedy.

    Civil rights leaders on the take not supporting educational choice for these poor children is a travesty.

  • Sun to Flip its Magnetic Field Soon

    The sun’s magnetic field is expected to flip in the next three to four months and it could lead to changes in our climate, storms and disruption to satellites.

    This solar event only happens once every 11 years and signals what physicists call the Solar Maximum – a time when the Sun’s solar activity is at its highest.

    During this peak in activity the outbursts of solar energy can increase the amount of cosmic and UV rays coming towards Earth and this can interfere with radio communications, cause solar bursts of light – known as flares – and can affect the planet’s temperature.

    via Mail Online.

    No one tell Al Gore that it’s really the sun that affects the Earth’s temperature.  Oh, let’s hope the “flip” is particularly violent, like it was in 1859.

    On a cool September night in 1859, campers out in Colorado were roused from sleep by a “light so bright that one could easily read common print,” as one newspaper described it. Some of them, confused, got up and began making breakfast.

    10_110_20_103

    Click on the picture for a full map showing how space weather can affect the Earth.

    Farther east, thousands of New Yorkers ran out onto their sidewalks to watch the sky glow, ribboned in yellow, white and crimson. Few people had ever seen an aurora that far south — and this one lit up the whole city.

    At the time, it was a dazzling display of nature. Yet if the same thing happened today, it would be an utter catastrophe.

    The auroras of 1859, known as the “Carrington Event,” came after the sun unleashed a large coronal mass ejection, a burst of charged plasma aimed directly at the Earth. When the particles hit our magnetosphere, they triggered an especially fierce geomagnetic storm that lit up the sky and frazzled communication wires around the world. Telegraphs in Philadelphia were spitting out “fantastical and unreadable messages,” one paper reported, with some systems unusable for hours.

    Today, electric utilities and the insurance industry are grappling with a scary possibility. A solar storm on the scale of that in 1859 would wreak havoc on power grids, pipelines and satellites. In the worst case, it could leave 20 million to 40 million people in the Northeast without power — possibly for years — as utilities struggled to replace thousands of fried transformers stretching from Washington to Boston. Chaos and riots might ensue.

    via. Washington Post.

    Wouldn’t that  be interesting?

     

     

  • National Debt (Strangely) Unchanged for 70 Days

    The U.S. national debt for the past 70 days has been stuck at exactly $16,699,396,000,000, CNSNews.com reports, citing the Daily Treasury Statement for July 26.“That is approximately $25 million below the legal limit of $16,699,421,095,673.60 that Congress has imposed on the debt,” the report notes.Fed debt subject to the legal limits imposed by Congress first hit the $16.7B mark on May 17. The national debt has for every business day since then been exactly $16,699,396,000,000.00.“If the debt had increased by even $30 million at any time during those 70 days, it would have exceeded the statutory limit,” the report conceded.However, according to the Treasury, the debt hasn’t budged an inch. It has been stuck at exactly $16,699,396,000,000:

    via TheBlaze.com.

    How bizarre is that?

    Can you imagine running your household and determining that you spent EXACTLY what you earned — down to the dollar — for nearly 3 months?

    Or is it possible that the G is playing games with the numbers?

  • More Bankruptcy Coming (to a city near you)

    The top 10 biggest U.S. cities on the brink of pension bankruptcy.

    #1 Philadelphia – Unfunded liability of $9 billion, $16,696 per household, only 1 year before the pension accounts are empty

    #2 Chicago – Unfunded liability of $44.8 billion, $41.966 per household, money runs out in 4 years

    #3 Boston – Unfunded liability of $7.5 billion, $30,901 per household, money runs out in 4 years

    #4 Cincinnati – Unfunded liability of $2 billion, $15,681 per household, money runs out in 5 years

    #5 St Paul – Unfunded liability of $1.4 billion, $13,686 per household, money runs out in 5 years

    #6 Jacksonville – Unfunded liability of $4 billion, $12,944 per household, money runs out in 5 years

    #7 New York City – Unfunded liability of $122 billion, $38,866 per household, money runs out in 6 years

    #8 Baltimore – Unfunded liability of $3.7 billion, $15, 420 per household, money runs out in 7 years

    #9 Detroit – Unfunded liability of $6.4 billion, $18,643 per household, money runs out in 8 years

    #10 Fort Worth – Unfunded liability of $2 billion, $7,212 per household, money runs out in 8 years

    via Business Insider.

    This list was put together using data from 2010-12.  So Detroit is on the list… and not at the top.  So how was Detroit the first to go?  Because the tax base fled in mass.  The constant media attention to Detroit didn’t help either.  But kudos to them for filing early and getting it out of the way.  The longer you wait the worse it is for everybody.

    Chicago sadly has the highest debt per capita.  The debt per household is approaching the average annual household income.  Who’s going to pay that off?  How many will participate in paying?  As Obama would say, will be make sure that everyone pays their fair share?

  • Feds Ask Web Firms For Account Passwords

    The U.S. government has demanded that major Internet companies divulge users’ stored passwords, according to two industry sources familiar with these orders, which represent an escalation in surveillance techniques that has not previously been disclosed.

    If the government is able to determine a person’s password, which is typically stored in encrypted form, the credential could be used to log in to an account to peruse confidential correspondence or even impersonate the user. Obtaining it also would aid in deciphering encrypted devices in situations where passwords are reused.  …

    Some of the government orders demand not only a user’s password but also the encryption algorithm and the so-called salt, according to a person familiar with the requests. A salt is a random string of letters or numbers used to make it more difficult to reverse the encryption process and determine the original password. Other orders demand the secret question codes often associated with user accounts.

    via CNET News.

    Well this sure has gotten ridiculous.