Yesterday I read something over at Hillbuzz that got me thinking:
Today I want to think about just who are the people who will be voting for Obama in November and see how that compares to the people who voted for him in 2008. I don’t believe anyone who DIDN’T vote for him last time liked anything about him and will be voting for him THIS time. I also don’t believe the people who sat the last election out because of John McCain will be staying home again.
via Hillbuzz.
So I spent a few minutes and created the table below. It only has states that Obama won in 2008. I left out states where Obama took >60% (except for Illinois b/c I was just curious.) It’s sorted by the percentage of voters in that state necessary to jump from Obama to Romney in order to flip the state.
| Raw Votes | Percentage | |||||
| State | Obama | McCain | Obama | McCain | FlipVotes | FlipPercent |
| North Carolina | 2,142,651 | 2,128,474 | 49.70% | 49.38% | 7,089 | 0.16% |
| Indiana | 1,374,039 | 1,345,648 | 49.85% | 48.82% | 14,196 | 0.51% |
| Florida | 4,282,367 | 4,046,219 | 50.91% | 48.40% | 118,074 | 1.26% |
| Ohio | 2,940,044 | 2,677,820 | 51.38% | 46.80% | 131,112 | 2.29% |
| Virginia | 1,959,532 | 1,725,005 | 52.63% | 46.33% | 117,264 | 3.15% |
| Colorado | 1,288,633 | 1,073,629 | 53.66% | 44.71% | 107,502 | 4.48% |
| Iowa | 828,940 | 682,379 | 53.93% | 44.39% | 73,281 | 4.77% |
| New Hampshire | 384,826 | 316,534 | 54.13% | 44.52% | 34,146 | 4.81% |
| Minnesota | 1,573,354 | 1,275,409 | 54.06% | 43.82% | 148,973 | 5.12% |
| Pennsylvania | 3,276,363 | 2,655,885 | 54.47% | 44.15% | 310,239 | 5.16% |
| Nevada | 533,736 | 412,827 | 55.15% | 42.65% | 60,455 | 6.25% |
| Wisconsin | 1,677,211 | 1,252,393 | 56.22% | 42.31% | 212,409 | 6.96% |
| New Mexico | 472,422 | 346,832 | 56.91% | 41.78% | 62,795 | 7.57% |
| New Jersey | 2,215,422 | 1,613,207 | 57.14% | 41.61% | 301,108 | 7.77% |
| Oregon | 1,037,291 | 738,475 | 56.75% | 40.40% | 149,408 | 8.18% |
| Michigan | 2,872,579 | 2,048,639 | 57.33% | 40.89% | 411,970 | 8.22% |
| Washington | 1,750,848 | 1,229,216 | 57.34% | 40.26% | 260,816 | 8.54% |
| Illinois | 3,419,348 | 2,031,179 | 61.85% | 36.74% | 694,085 | 12.56% |
This means if 7,089 people in North Carolina who voted for Obama last time vote for Romney this time then Romney will win NC. Regardless of whatever the polling says.
If Kevin DuJan at Hillbuzz is correct, it’s pretty safe to say that North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia should all go Romney. In these state Romney needs <2% of voters to flip. That should not be a problem.
Should that happen, Romney will have 265 or 266 electoral votes depending on how Nebraska splits. You can see the map here.
That means that Romney must also win, Colorado or Iowa or Wisconsin or Michigan, or Romney must win at least 2 votes from Nebraska AND New Hampshire.
That my friends is how Romney wins.